A National Tourism Recovery Strategy
A Forecasting Model of Domestic Tourist Trips Post-Pandemic through Promotional Budget Optimization
Keywords:
Domestic tourism, promotional budget, system dynamics, forecasting, tourism recoveryAbstract
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant decline in domestic tourist travel in Indonesia, resulting in stagnation within the national tourism sector. In 2023, the government set an ambitious target of 1.2 to 1.4 billion domestic tourist trips, supported by a promotional budget of only IDR 22 billion. This raised concerns regarding the feasibility of achieving the target with limited funding. This study aims to evaluate the adequacy of the allocated promotional budget and to develop a projection model for increasing domestic tourist travel over the next five years using a dynamic systems modeling approach. The simulation, conducted using Powersim 10 software and validated through predictive accuracy analysis, reveals that with the current budget, the projected number of trips is only approximately 543 million. The study concludes that the existing budget is insufficient and recommends a strategic increase in tourism promotion funding to meet national tourism recovery targets and accelerate the sector’s post-pandemic revival.References
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